Subsequent data revisions have erased these declines.
Adopting a dating criterion that refers solely to aggregate Euro-area economic activity achieves this objective most transparently.Note that since October 2012 the Committee has dropped its requirement that peaks or troughs mark turning points in economic activity in most countries of the euro area.Q: Is it possible that the EU area is in a recession while some of the individual countries are not?A: The Committee wants to ensure that its characterization of Euro-area economic activity (which is its sole objective) is not affected by rising heterogeneity in the Euro-area.For instance, 2011Q3 is a peak in the Euro-area as a whole, but not for Germany.
A detailed analysis of heterogeneity in individual countries' business cycles is included in the Committee's releases since its creation.Note: CEPR Recession shading for quarters follows the trough method used by FRED to compute NBER Recession Inndicators for the United States (see here).It shows a recession from the quarter following the peak through the quarter of the trough (i.e.See The CEPR and NBER Approaches What data does the Committee use?See Data Sources The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.The quarters P 1 to T (with P 1 and T included) constitute a recession, a period when economic activity is contracting. How long does the Committee expect the recession to last? Does the Committee follow the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee in its deliberations?